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How Did We Do? — Last Week’s Scorecard
Every week, we publish institutional dark pool levels with bullish and bearish targets. Here’s how last week’s callouts performed against the actual weekly candle for February 17-21, 2026 (4-day week due to Presidents’ Day).
✅ 2 of 12 bullish triggers activated | ✅ 7 of 12 bearish triggers activated
🌟 Star Performer: PANW hit all 5 bearish targets after breaking below $162.50, falling to $147.15.
📉 Bearish Week: 7 of 12 tickers triggered bearish levels vs only 2 bullish – institutions positioned defensively.
| Ticker | Entry | Bull Above | Wk High | Bull Targets | Bear Below | Wk Low | Bear Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $685.00 | $687.50 | $690.06 | 1/5 | $677.00 | $675.78 | 0/6 |
| QQQ | $608.00 | $610.00 | $610.35 | 0/5 | $597.50 | $593.34 | 1/5 |
| IWM | $266.50 | $268.00 | $267.33 | ❌ | $256.00 | $259.06 | ❌ |
| SMH | $416.25 | $417.50 | $417.04 | ❌ (missed by $0.46) | $400.00 | $397.77 | 0/6 |
| XLF | $55.00 | $56.25 | $52.78 | ❌ | $51.00 | $51.72 | ❌ |
| MSFT | $425.00 | $430.00 | $404.43 | ❌ | $397.50 | $394.53 | 1/5 |
| NVDA | $190.00 | $192.50 | $190.37 | ❌ | $180.00 | $179.18 | 0/5 |
| AAPL | $265.00 | $267.50 | $266.82 | ❌ | $252.50 | $255.54 | ❌ |
| AMZN | $210.00 | $215.00 | $211.17 | ❌ | $196.00 | $196.00 | 0/5 |
| AVGO | $350.00 | $355.00 | $340.11 | ❌ | $307.50 | $316.31 | ❌ |
| XOM | $152.50 | $155.00 | $153.38 | ❌ | $140.00 | $145.15 | ❌ |
| PANW | $170.00 | $172.50 | $166.01 | ❌ | $162.50 | $147.15 | 5/5 |
📈 Market Overview
📊 Weekly Stats: 1,247 block trades | $285.6B total volume | $5.57B biggest print (SPY) | Most active: NVDA
The market showed resilience during the shortened Presidents’ Day week, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.63% to close at 6,905 points on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.78% to 22,753.63, while the Dow Jones gained 0.26% to 49,662.66. However, institutional dark pool activity told a different story – with 7 of 12 bearish triggers activated versus only 2 bullish ones.
Key catalysts included January CPI data meeting expectations at 3.1% year-over-year, which sent 10-year Treasury yields to five-month lows. An upside surprise in jobs data provided mixed signals, with institutions seemingly positioning for inflation to settle closer to 3% rather than the Fed’s 2% target. The shortened trading week saw concentrated institutional activity, particularly in technology names.
Notable institutional positioning ahead of market moves:
- NVDA: $1.50B print at $176.01 on Feb 5, days before the stock rallied
- AAPL: Sustained accumulation with $1.88B on Feb 17 at $263.88
- CIEN: Massive $3.75B institutional bet at $271.32 on Feb 6
- PANW: Heavy distribution ahead of the 25% decline to $147.15
- SPY: $5.57B monster print on Jan 30 at $691.63 marked recent highs
Data source: MobyTick API, 30-day aggregated dark pool activity, 400K+ minimum trade size.
💡 Dark Pool Explainer: Dark pools sound like insidious beasts. But these big players need to buy or sell from someone — they can’t use a limit order for 3 million shares. This is why trades happen ‘off exchange.’ Our job: identify these levels and use them as institutional support and resistance. Remember: Institutions are not scalpers. They accumulate and distribute over time.
🏆 Print of the Week
CIEN (Ciena Corp): 13.83M shares at $271.32 = $3.75B on February 6. This telecom infrastructure play rarely sees prints above $500M, making this 7x outlier significant. The stock has gained 8.3% since the print, suggesting institutional accumulation ahead of 5G infrastructure buildout catalysts.
🎯 Trade Setups — Entries & Targets (February 24–28, 2026)
Based on institutional dark pool levels from the past 30 days. These are NOT recommendations — they are institutional-grade support and resistance levels for your watchlist.
How to use these levels: Wait for a closing confirmation in the last 15 minutes of the trading day. If price closes above the “Bullish Above” level, the bullish targets are in play. If price closes below the “Bearish Below” level, the bearish targets are active. Do NOT chase entries mid-day — let the close confirm the direction.
📈 Bullish Targets
| Ticker | Price | Above | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 689.43 | 692.00 | 695.50 | 700.00 | 705.00 | 710.00 |
| QQQ | 608.81 | 612.00 | 618.00 | 625.00 | 630.00 | 635.00 |
| NVDA | 189.82 | 195.00 | 200.00 | 205.00 | 210.00 | 215.00 |
| AAPL | 264.58 | 270.00 | 275.00 | 280.00 | 285.00 | 290.00 |
| MSFT | 397.23 | 405.00 | 415.00 | 425.00 | 435.00 | 445.00 |
| TSLA | [CURRENT] | 420.00 | 435.00 | 450.00 | 465.00 | 480.00 |
| AMZN | 210.11 | 218.00 | 225.00 | 235.00 | 245.00 | 255.00 |
| AVGO | 332.65 | 345.00 | 360.00 | 375.00 | 390.00 | 410.00 |
| SMH | 415.03 | 420.00 | 430.00 | 440.00 | 450.00 | 465.00 |
| IWM | 264.61 | 270.00 | 275.00 | 280.00 | 285.00 | 292.00 |
| XLF | 52.49 | 54.00 | 56.00 | 58.00 | 60.00 | 62.50 |
| PANW | 148.70 | 165.00 | 175.00 | 185.00 | 195.00 | 210.00 |
📉 Bearish Targets
| Ticker | Price | Below | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 689.43 | 680.00 | 675.00 | 670.00 | 665.00 | 660.00 | 655.00 |
| QQQ | 608.81 | 600.00 | 590.00 | 580.00 | 570.00 | 560.00 | 550.00 |
| NVDA | 189.82 | 180.00 | 170.00 | 160.00 | 150.00 | 140.00 | 130.00 |
| AAPL | 264.58 | 255.00 | 245.00 | 235.00 | 225.00 | 215.00 | 205.00 |
| MSFT | 397.23 | 390.00 | 380.00 | 370.00 | 360.00 | 350.00 | 340.00 |
| TSLA | [CURRENT] | 400.00 | 380.00 | 360.00 | 340.00 | 320.00 | 300.00 |
| AMZN | 210.11 | 195.00 | 185.00 | 175.00 | 165.00 | 155.00 | 145.00 |
| AVGO | 332.65 | 310.00 | 290.00 | 270.00 | 250.00 | 230.00 | 210.00 |
| SMH | 415.03 | 400.00 | 385.00 | 370.00 | 355.00 | 340.00 | 325.00 |
| IWM | 264.61 | 255.00 | 245.00 | 235.00 | 225.00 | 215.00 | 205.00 |
| XLF | 52.49 | 50.00 | 48.00 | 46.00 | 44.00 | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| PANW | 148.70 | 140.00 | 130.00 | 120.00 | 110.00 | 100.00 | 90.00 |
👀 What to Watch This Week
Key catalysts and events for February 24-28, 2026:
- Earnings: Limited major reports scheduled for the week
- Economic Data: Personal Income/Spending (Friday), Durable Goods Orders (Thursday)
- Fed Events: No FOMC meetings, watch for Fed speaker commentary on inflation trajectory
- Market Structure: Full 5-day trading week after Presidents’ Day break
🔎 Deep Dives
NVIDIA (NVDA) — $189.82, +4.3% week
30-day stats: $19.1B total dark pool value | 103.2M shares | 98 trades
NVIDIA continues to attract massive institutional attention with over $19 billion in dark pool activity over the past month. The standout print was 8.5M shares at $176.01 on February 5, totaling $1.50B – this came just days before the stock rallied 8.2% to current levels. Multiple accumulation clusters appear around $180-185, with distribution evident above $200.
Key institutional levels:
- Major support cluster: $175-180 (multiple multi-million share prints)
- Accumulation zone: $180-185 (consistent buying pressure)
- Distribution area: $195-205 (selling into strength)
- Breakout level: Above $205 targets $215-220
- [HOAGERS SUGGESTION: Monitor $190 as pivot – above suggests continuation to $200+]
📈 Want to see NVDA’s institutional levels on your chart? Start your free trial at mobyticktrading.com/pricing
Apple (AAPL) — $264.58, +2.1% week
30-day stats: $22.4B total dark pool value | 84.9M shares | 91 trades
Apple leads all stocks in absolute dark pool dollar volume with $22.4 billion over the past 30 days. Recent activity includes a $1.88B print on February 17 at $263.88, coinciding with the current price level. This suggests institutions view current levels as fair value for accumulation. The sheer volume of activity indicates major position building ahead of potential catalysts.
Key institutional levels:
- Heavy accumulation: $255-265 (multiple billion-dollar prints)
- Support floor: $250 (historical bounce level)
- Resistance zone: $275-280 (profit-taking area)
- Breakout target: $285+ if clearing $280 resistance
- [HOAGERS SUGGESTION: Current level $264.58 sits in sweet spot of institutional buying]
🍎 Track Apple’s institutional flow in real-time → mobyticktrading.com/pricing
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) — $148.70, -10.2% week
30-day stats: $2.8B total dark pool value | 12.1M shares | 23 trades
PANW delivered a textbook example of institutional distribution ahead of a major move. The stock triggered all 5 bearish targets last week, falling from $162.50 to $147.15. Heavy dark pool activity of $998M on February 11 at $165.30 now appears to be institutional selling rather than buying. This highlights why tracking institutional flow is critical – smart money was exiting before the breakdown.
Key institutional levels:
- Distribution evidence: $165.30 (massive selling pressure)
- Current support: $145-150 (testing institutional demand)
- Recovery pivot: $155 reclaim needed for bounce
- Major resistance: $165-170 (prior distribution zone)
- [HOAGERS SUGGESTION: Watch for institutional buying at $140-145 to signal reversal]
🛡️ See institutional distribution patterns before they break → mobyticktrading.com/pricing
📚 Reading Distribution Patterns
This week’s PANW breakdown offers a perfect example of how to identify institutional distribution before major moves. Here’s what to watch:
Pattern Recognition:
When institutions are selling (distributing), you’ll see large dark pool prints near resistance levels, often accompanied by price weakness in subsequent days. The key is timing – institutions distribute BEFORE the breakdown, not after.
Volume vs. Price Action:
PANW’s $998M print at $165.30 on Feb 11 was followed by continued selling pressure. Compare this to accumulation patterns like NVDA’s $1.50B at $176.01, which preceded a rally. Same large size, opposite intent.
Practical Application:
• Large prints at resistance = potential distribution
• Large prints at support = potential accumulation
• Follow-through price action confirms the institutional intent
• Use these levels as dynamic support/resistance in your trading
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About MobyTick Trading
MobyTick Trading provides institutional-grade dark pool and block trade intelligence to retail traders. Charts show you the past — MobyTick shows you what institutions are doing RIGHT NOW.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Dark pool data represents historical trades and does not predict future price movements. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
