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How Did We Do? — Last Week’s Scorecard
Every week, we publish institutional dark pool levels with bullish and bearish targets. Here’s how last week’s callouts performed against the actual weekly candle for March 2–6, 2026.
✅ 13 of 18 bullish triggers activated | ✅ 10 of 18 bearish triggers activated
A volatile, red week across the board — Iran conflict, oil at $90, and a shocking jobs miss. But the institutional levels delivered. When triggers activated, they hit targets.
| Ticker | Bull Above | Wk High | Bull Result | Bear Below | Wk Low | Bear Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $697.50 | $688.62 | ❌ No Entry | $679 | $669.66 | ✅ T1-T5 ⭐ |
| QQQ | $609.50 | $612.88 | ✅ T1 | $600 | $591.87 | ✅ T1-T3 |
| IWM | $266.25 | $264.28 | ❌ No Entry | $259 | $249.94 | ✅ T1-T5 ⭐ |
| NVDA | $180 | $184.70 | ✅ T1-T2 | $174 | $174.64 | ❌ No Entry |
| AAPL | $272.50 | $266.53 | ❌ No Entry | $259 | $254.37 | ✅ T1-T3 |
| MSFT | $403 | $413.05 | ✅ T1-T4 ⭐ | $384 | $390.63 | ❌ No Entry |
| GOOGL | $317.50 | $308.49 | ❌ No Entry | $298 | $295.18 | ✅ T1 |
| AMZN | $211.25 | $220.47 | ✅ T1-T4 ⭐ | $205 | $202.48 | ✅ T1 |
| META | $665 | $672.77 | ✅ T1 | $637 | $634.50 | ✅ T1 |
| NFLX | $100 | $100.19 | ✅ 0 targets | $90 | $95.20 | ❌ No Entry |
| UNH | $295 | $295.31 | ✅ 0 targets | $280 | $283.05 | ❌ No Entry |
| ORCL | $155 | $159.19 | ✅ T1-T2 | $142.50 | $141.18 | ✅ 0 targets |
| NVO | $41 | $39.12 | ❌ No Entry | $37 | $35.85 | ✅ T1 |
| WMT | $128.25 | $128.75 | ✅ 0 targets | $121 | $121.62 | ❌ No Entry |
| RTX | $205 | $214.50 | ✅ T1-T4 ⭐ | $196 | $200.10 | ❌ No Entry |
| CVX | $188 | $192.41 | ✅ T1-T2 | $180 | $184.15 | ❌ No Entry |
| XLE | $56.25 | $57.88 | ✅ T1 | $54 | $55.33 | ❌ No Entry |
| MRVL | $82.50 | $93.40 | ✅ T1-T5 ⭐⭐ | $77 | $75.24 | ✅ T1 |
⭐ Star Performers:
- MRVL — The runaway winner. Both directions triggered. Bull T1-T5 hit (+$10.90 from trigger to weekly high of $93.40). Marvell crushed earnings (revenue +27%, raised AI guidance).
- RTX — Bull T1-T4. Defense sector strength continued. Hit $214.50 weekly high with the geopolitical backdrop.
- MSFT — Bull T1-T4. Rebounded from $390.63 low to $413.05 high — a $22.42 weekly range.
- AMZN — Bull T1-T4 + Bear T1. Both directions worked. $17.99 weekly range.
- IWM — Bear T1-T5, all targets hit. Small caps fell from $259 trigger to $249.94 low (–4.9% for the week).
- SPY — Bear T1-T5. Broke below the massive 20M share institutional level at $679.10-$679.11.
Note: If stocks didn’t trigger the previous week, it doesn’t mean the trade is off. There is massive institutional conviction and these levels will move. Keep them on your radar.
Market Overview
Weekly Dark Pool Stats (Mar 2–6): 52,000+ block trades (50K+ shares) | $351B+ total volume | Most active: NVDA ($4.0B across 24 trades)
War, oil, and a jobs shock. This was the week the market broke down — and the dark pool data told the story before the headlines landed.
The numbers: The S&P 500 fell 2.0% for the week. The Dow dropped 3.0% — its worst week since April 2025. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 1.2%. Small caps (IWM) got crushed, down 4.9%. Stocks are now negative for 2026.
Weekly index performance (Mar 2–6):
- SPY (S&P 500): $686.38 → $672.38 (–2.04%)
- QQQ (Nasdaq-100): $608.09 → $599.75 (–1.37%)
- IWM (Russell 2000): $263.81 → $250.89 (–4.90%)
- DIA (Dow): $489.18 → $475.23 (–2.85%)
The Iran conflict dominated the week. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities began Saturday, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil passes — saw tanker traffic essentially halt. West Texas Intermediate crude surged 35% to $90.65/barrel, its biggest weekly gain since 1983. Maersk suspended shipping services through the region Friday. Gold hit $5,165/oz. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 3.95% to 4.15%.
Then Friday’s jobs report: the U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February (consensus expected +50,000). Unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. “A tricky, stagflationary mix of risks,” JP Morgan’s Elyse Ausenbaugh called it.
The dark pool story: SPY’s institutional floor at $679.10-$679.11 — 20 million shares printed across December 16-17 in late-reported trades totaling $13.6 billion — finally broke this week. Price fell through and tested the deeper October-November institutional zone at $669-$672, where 56 million shares of prints dating back to October 2025 form the next line of defense. Two new late prints appeared: 5.7M shares at $685.52 (Thursday) and 5.1M at $681.74 (Friday).
Below the current zone, the next major institutional levels are the September 2025 prints: 6.5M shares at $663.21, 6.5M at $661.78, 6.6M at $659.23, and 5.5M at $657.76.
Sector performance:
- Materials (XLB): –6.0% — Worst performer
- Healthcare (XLV): –4.0%
- Staples (XLP): –4.0%
- Industrials (XLI): –3.0%
- Energy (XLE): –2.0% — Despite oil surge, energy stocks fell with the market
- Tech (XLK), Financials (XLF), Comm Services (XLC), Consumer Disc (XLY): Flat
Notable: Suncor Energy (SU) saw $780M in dark pool activity across 8 trades this week, including three near-identical 3.25M share prints within 60 seconds on March 3 at $57.12 each. However, SU went ex-dividend March 4 ($0.60/share) — these prints were likely positioning to collect the dividend.
💡 What Are Dark Pools? Dark pools sound like insidious beasts. But these big players need to buy or sell from someone — they can’t use a limit order for 3 million shares. This is why trades happen “off exchange.” Our job: identify these levels and use them as institutional support and resistance. Remember: Institutions are not scalpers. They accumulate and distribute over time.
Sources: MobyTick API, Investopedia, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN Business, Reuters
Print of the Week
IOT (Samsara) — A textbook dark pool accumulation-to-breakout
When IOT crashed from $43.79 in December to the low $20s, institutions stepped in hard. On February 3 alone, three prints landed at $23.83, $23.95, and $24.10 — over 3 million shares as the stock bottomed. Then on February 17, the largest print: 3.2 million shares at $25.55. These prints established the $23.83-$25.55 zone as the institutional floor.
What happened next was textbook: price tested these levels, bounced, and with each retest the prints held as support. Volume began increasing. By early March, prints appeared above the zone — 609.8K at $29.35 on March 3 — and on Friday March 6, IOT gapped from $29.58 to open at $32.19 and ran to $35.55, closing at $35.36 near the top of the candle on 33.4 million shares (5x average volume). A 1.5 million share print at $34.33 ($51M) on Friday confirmed institutions establishing positions at the new level.
The lesson: When you see institutions printing at specific levels during a crash, and those levels hold through retests with increasing volume — that’s accumulation. The data was on the tape a month before the breakout.
Trade Setups — Entries & Targets (March 9–13, 2026)
Based on institutional dark pool levels from the past 30 days. These are NOT recommendations — they are institutional-grade support and resistance levels for your watchlist.
How to use these levels: Wait for a closing confirmation in the last 15 minutes of the trading day. If price closes above the “Bullish Above” level, the bullish targets are in play. If price closes below the “Bearish Below” level, the bearish targets are active. Do NOT chase entries mid-day — let the close confirm the direction.
⚠️ BEARISH MARKET CAUTION: When the broader market is trending down, traders tend to sell into rallies. Be careful with swing trades — consider taking profits earlier than you normally would.
BULLISH TARGETS
| Ticker | Price | Above | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $672.38 | $680 | $681.25 | $682.50 | $685 | $687.50 | $689 |
| QQQ | $599.75 | $610 | $611.25 | $612.50 | $615 | $616.50 | $620 |
| IWM | $250.89 | $255 | $256.25 | $257.50 | $259 | $260 | $262.50 |
| NVDA | $177.82 | $180 | $181.50 | $183 | $185 | $186 | $187.50 |
| ORCL | $152.96 | $160 | $162.50 | $165 | $170 | $172.50 | $175 |
| RTX | $209.76 | $215 | $216.25 | $217.50 | $220 | $225 | $230 |
| IOT | $35.36 | $36 | $36.50 | $37 | $38 | $39 | $40 |
| PANW | $165.05 | $167.50 | $170 | $172.50 | $175 | $180 | $182 |
| DDOG | $125.75 | $127.50 | $130 | $132.50 | $135 | $137.50 | $140 |
| WDAY | $151.04 | $154 | $156.25 | $157.50 | $160 | $165 | $170 |
| CRM | $202.11 | $201.25 | $202.50 | $205 | $207.50 | $210 | $211.50 |
| PINS | $20.01 | $20.50 | $21 | $22 | $23.50 | $25 | |
| NOW | $124.34 | $125 | $126.25 | $127.50 | $130 | $135 | $137.50 |
BEARISH TARGETS
| Ticker | Price | Below | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $672.38 | $670 | $667.50 | $665 | $662.50 | $660 | |
| QQQ | $599.75 | $597.50 | $595 | $592.50 | $590 | $585 | $580 |
| IWM | $250.89 | $250 | $247.50 | $245 | $243 | $240 | $235 |
| NVDA | $177.82 | $177 | $176 | $172 | $172.50 | $170 | $167.50 |
| ORCL | $152.96 | $140 | $137.50 | $135 | $132.50 | $130 | $127.50 |
| RTX | $209.76 | $209 | $207.50 | $205 | $204 | $202 | $200 |
| IOT | $35.36 | $33 | $32 | $31 | $30 | $29.50 | $29 |
| PANW | $165.05 | $160 | $159 | $157.50 | $155 | $152.50 | $150 |
| DDOG | $125.75 | $120 | $119 | $118 | $117.50 | $115 | $113 |
| WDAY | $151.04 | $140 | $137.50 | $135 | $133 | $130 | $127.50 |
| CRM | $202.11 | $189 | $187.50 | $185 | $182.50 | $185 | $175 |
| PINS | $20.01 | $18.50 | $18 | $17 | $16.75 | $16 | $15 |
| NOW | $124.34 | $114 | $113 | $112 | $110 | $108 | $107 |
What to Watch This Week
- Monday, March 9: ORCL earnings (BMO) — $2.51B in dark pool positioning (89 prints).
- Monday, March 9: GOOGL ex-dividend ($0.84)
- Tuesday, March 10: CPI data — critical given Friday’s jobs shock and oil price surge.
- Tuesday, March 10: NIO earnings (BMO) — $229.7M in dark pool activity (246 prints)
- Thursday, March 12: BABA earnings — $1.35B institutional positioning (75 prints). ADBE earnings (AMC) — $533.3M (7 prints).
- Ongoing: Iran conflict developments. Oil at $90/barrel. Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic.
- Ongoing: Fed rate expectations — market pricing 0% chance of March cut.
Deep Dives
SPY — The Floor That Broke
Current: $672.38 | Week: –2.04% | IV Rank: 100 | Rel Vol: 120.88%
SPY’s chart this week tells the story of the entire market. The 20 million share institutional wall at $679.10-$679.11 — built across December 16-17 in late-reported prints totaling $13.6 billion — had been the floor since December. This week, it broke.
Price fell through $679 on Wednesday and continued to $669.66 on Friday’s jobs report, testing the deeper institutional zone at $669-$672 where 56 million shares of prints dating back to October 2025 form the next line of defense.
Key Institutional Levels (1-year largest prints):
- $694.62: 8.2M shares (Jan 30) — overhead resistance
- $693.89: 5.7M shares (Jan 14) — overhead resistance
- $689.00: 6.8M shares (Dec 12) — overhead cluster
- $685.52: 5.7M shares (Mar 5 late print) — NEW this week
- $681.78: 6.1M shares (Dec 15) — intermediate support
- $681.74: 5.1M shares (Mar 6 late print) — NEW this week
- $680.72: 7.9M shares (Dec 16) — THE BROKEN FLOOR
- $679.11: 7.5M shares (Dec 17) — THE BROKEN FLOOR
- $671.27: 4.9M shares (Dec 18) — deep support, held this week
Below current price — the next major support:
- $663.21: 6.5M shares (Sep 19)
- $661.78: 6.5M shares (Sep 29)
- $659.23: 6.6M shares (Sep 18)
- $657.76: 5.5M shares (Sep 12) — deep floor
A close above $680 activates bullish targets. Below $670, the September support at $657-$663 comes into play.
QQQ — Nasdaq-100 ($599.75)
Current: $599.75 | Week: –1.37%
📈 Bullish Above: $610 | 📉 Bearish Below: $597.50
QQQ held up better than the broader market. Dark pool prints clustered in the $601-$610 range. The bearish trigger at $597.50 sits just below Friday’s low of $598.33.
IWM — Russell 2000 ($250.89)
Current: $250.89 | Week: –4.90% — Worst major index
📈 Bullish Above: $255 | 📉 Bearish Below: $250
Small caps got hammered. Dark pool prints show activity at $250.05 (right at current price). The $250 bearish trigger is critical.
📡 Breakout Watch + Education: The IOT Pattern
How to Spot Institutional Accumulation Before the Breakout
This week produced a textbook example of how dark pool data can reveal institutional accumulation before a breakout happens. We’re calling it the “IOT Pattern” — after Samsara (IOT), which demonstrated it perfectly this week.
Why This Works
Institutions can’t hide size. When a fund needs to accumulate millions of shares, those prints show up in the dark pool data — often weeks before the price moves. The trick is knowing what to look for and how the sequence unfolds.
The Three Stages
- 1. ACCUMULATION — Institutions print shares at specific price levels while the stock is quiet. Volume is normal or below average. The stock may be basing after a selloff or simply boring. But prints cluster at the same levels, day after day.
- 2. VOLUME SURGE — Trading volume increases significantly as price approaches or breaks above the print levels. You’ll often see volume jump 2-5x its average.
- 3. BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION — Price breaks above the print zone, closes near the daily high, and new prints appear at the higher level. When you see fresh prints at the breakout level, it confirms conviction.
IOT: The Perfect Example
- Stage 1 (Feb 3-17): IOT crashed to the low $20s. Three prints on Feb 3 at $23.83, $23.95, and $24.10 — over 3M shares at the bottom. Then Feb 17: 3.2M shares at $25.55. Nobody was talking about IOT.
- Stage 2 (Late Feb-Early Mar): Volume began rising. A 609.8K print at $29.35 on March 3 showed institutions stepping up.
- Stage 3 (March 6): IOT gapped to open at $32.19 and ran to $35.55 on 33.4M shares (5x average). A 1.5M share print at $34.33 ($51M) confirmed institutions at the new level.
What to Look For in Your Own Scanning
- ✅ Multiple prints clustered at the same price zone (within 2-3% band)
- ✅ Prints occurring on separate days (sustained conviction)
- ✅ Stock is quiet/consolidating while prints accumulate
- ✅ Volume increases as price approaches the print zone
- ✅ Price closes near daily highs
- ✅ New prints appear ABOVE the original zone
- ❌ Avoid: single large prints with no follow-through
- ❌ Avoid: prints at closing prices (may be closing crosses)
PANW — Palo Alto Networks ($165.05)
📈 Bullish Above: $167.50 | 📉 Bearish Below: $160
PANW is pressing into a dense institutional cluster from February 9-13: roughly 3 million shares packed into $165.43-$166.95 across eight prints. This week, price stair-stepped from $150 → $157 → $163 → $165.05 with clean higher closes every single day.
DDOG — Datadog ($125.75)
📈 Bullish Above: $127.50 | 📉 Bearish Below: $120
DDOG built a base at $103-$112 through February. This week, price broke above the entire cluster to $125.75. A new 100K print at $125.20 on Friday confirms institutions at the breakout level.
WDAY — Workday ($151.04)
📈 Bullish Above: $154 | 📉 Bearish Below: $140
WDAY shows institutional prints stair-stepping higher through the week. The $154 bullish trigger aligns with overhead prints at $153.73-$154 from February 10 (1M+ shares).
CRM — Salesforce ($202.11)
📈 Bullish Above: $201.25 | 📉 Bearish Below: $189
CRM has broken above ALL dark pool prints. The institutional floor at $182-$192 now serves as support. The bullish trigger is already active at $201.25.
PINS — Pinterest ($20.01)
📈 Bullish Above: $20.50 | 📉 Bearish Below: $18.50
PINS crashed to $16.69 then institutions accumulated. March 3: four prints from $18.66 to $19.29 totaling 1.57M shares on 39M volume. Friday closed $20.01 — above every print.
NOW — ServiceNow ($124.34)
📈 Bullish Above: $125 | 📉 Bearish Below: $114
NOW built an accumulation base at $104-$108 with the big print — 2.0M shares at $107.13. This week broke out to $124.34. A 1.0M share print at $123.60 on Friday confirms institutions at the new level.
NVDA — Nvidia ($177.82)
📈 Bullish Above: $180 | 📉 Bearish Below: $177
NVDA remains the most active dark pool stock with $4.0B in prints this week. Overhead: ~20M shares of institutional supply between $185-$190. Support floor: 8.5M at $176.01 and this week’s 6.5M at $177.82. Current price is wedged between the floor and ceiling. Ex-dividend March 11.
ORCL — Oracle ($152.96) ⚠️ Earnings: Monday March 9 BMO
📈 Bullish Above: $160 | 📉 Bearish Below: $140
ORCL has $2.51B in institutional positioning (89 prints). Two clear zones: accumulation at $145-$154 and overhead from January at $171-$184. Earnings Monday is the catalyst. IV Rank: 81.8.
RTX — RTX Corporation ($209.76)
📈 Bullish Above: $215 | 📉 Bearish Below: $209
RTX is the best-looking chart — a textbook staircase of institutional prints from $187.17 → $196 → $198 (2.6M) → $201.92 → $204.81 → $209.76. Each print higher than the last, with price following. IV Rank: 100.
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MobyTick Trading provides institutional-grade dark pool and block trade intelligence to retail traders. Charts show you the past — MobyTick shows you what institutions are doing RIGHT NOW.
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This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Dark pool data represents historical trades and does not predict future price movements. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
