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Market Overview
The week of June 22–26 closed lower across the major averages, but the more notable feature was the spread beneath the surface. The QQQ–IWM gap of roughly −5.7 percentage points is consistent with a rotation out of the most-crowded leadership rather than a broad-based selloff. Capital appeared to step back from AI-hardware names — SMH finished the week down about −8.8%, with semiconductor weakness traced in part to Samsung and SK Hynix — while defensives, utilities, value, and small caps that had lagged earlier in the quarter held up comparatively well.
Last Week’s Scorecard — June 22–26
| Ticker | Above | Below | Wk High | Wk Low | Wk Close | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $760.00 | $738.00 | $750.18 | $716.58 | $728.99 | 🔴 Below — +6 target(s) |
| QQQ | $747.50 | $720.00 | $745.45 | $702.81 | $706.52 | 🔴 Below — +6 target(s) |
| IWM | $298.00 | $288.00 | $301.50 | $292.40 | $299.83 | 🟢 Above — +1 target(s) |
| INTC | $136.25 | $116.00 | $141.45 | $125.41 | $128.32 | 🟢 Above — +1 target(s) |
| SPCX | $215.00 | $172.00 | $176.75 | $147.11 | $153.23 | 🔴 Below — +5 target(s) |
| AVGO | $412.50 | $372.50 | $414.64 | $363.83 | $365.02 | 🔴 Below — +3 target(s) |
| MRVL | $330.00 | $280.00 | $314.17 | $262.00 | $266.77 | 🔴 Below — +3 target(s) |
| MU | $1,150.00 | $945.00 | $1,255.00 | $991.10 | $1,132.33 | 🟢 Above — +5 target(s) |
| TSM | $467.50 | $425.00 | $476.79 | $419.19 | $432.35 | 🔄 Both — Above +1T, Below +1T |
| EEM | $71.25 | $67.50 | $71.57 | $66.27 | $67.19 | 🔴 Below — +3 target(s) |
| CRWV | $125.00 | $100.00 | $119.19 | $93.50 | $96.58 | 🔴 Below — +3 target(s) |
| PANW | $290.00 | $260.00 | $306.24 | $282.52 | $304.20 | 🟢 Above — +5 target(s) |
| ALAB | $420.00 | $350.00 | $440.99 | $372.50 | $391.74 | ⚪ No trigger |
Dark Pool Flow
The index complex dominated raw notional in the tracked prints, led by SPY at roughly $20.2B across 27 prints (avg ~$734.65) and QQQ near $18.4B across 18 prints (avg ~$722.22). IWM logged about $2.8B across 15 prints (avg ~$297.63) — a footprint that appears consistent with the rotation theme seen in price.
Bull Crosses
This Week’s Setups — June 29 – July 3
Below are the trigger levels for the week ahead. Bullish triggers in green, bearish triggers in red.
ETF Dark Pool Flow
ETF-level prints skewed heavily toward the largest index products through the week. SPY (27 prints, ~$20.2B, avg ~$734.65) carried the highest print count of any instrument, a pattern that appears consistent with systematic rebalancing across the move. QQQ (18 prints, ~$18.4B, avg ~$722.22) closed the week below its average print price. IWM (15 prints, ~$2.8B, avg ~$297.63) ended above its average print — a small bull cross that may indicate the rotation theme also showed up in the tracked ETF tape.
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