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Week in Review: Aug 3–7
A soft jobs report landed at the end of the strongest broad-market week in months, and the tape barely blinked.
Every major benchmark finished higher: SPY 773.26 (+3.51%), QQQ 723.03 (+5.09%), IWM 301.56 (+3.56%). The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.64 (+3.58%), the Nasdaq Composite at 26,690.62 (+5.19%), the Dow at 54,036.93 (+2.96%), the Russell 2000 at 3,034.49 (+3.52%). Note what did *not* happen: no size divergence. IWM (+3.56%) and SPY (+3.51%) finished within five basis points of each other.
Friday, Aug 7: July nonfarm payrolls came in at −23,000, the first monthly decline after four straight months of gains, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and annual wage growth easing to 3.2% — the slowest reading since May 2021. Prior-month revisions were negative. Mid-week was mixed: ISM Services held in expansion at 54.1, but its Employment Index dropped to 47.4 from 51.2 while Prices Paid jumped to 70.3 against a 65.0 consensus. ADP private payrolls missed the same morning. ISM Manufacturing, meanwhile, hit a four-year high.
Volatility went the other direction from the labor data. VIX closed at 14.90, down from 15.99 — a 6.82% drop and the week’s low print. The 10-year finished around 4.64%, lower on the week, with the front end falling harder. GLD +7.25% as gold traded in record territory.
Where the Gains Came From
Concentration, not breadth. SMH +7.80% and XLK +7.20% stacked cleanly above the index, with XLB +4.82% third. At the other end, XLE −3.44% and utilities −1.67%. That is an 11.24-point dispersion between the best and worst sector on the board in a single week, with defensives — staples +0.08%, real estate −0.20% — left behind entirely.
Dark Pool Flow
$154.6B in qualifying notional crossed the tape. The broad-market ETF complex absorbed $19.59B, roughly 12x the $1.59B through all eleven sector SPDRs combined.
SPY led everything at $14.71B (0.38x ADV, avg print $768.97 against a $773.26 close), with QQQ at $2.90B and IWM at $531.2M — the small-cap fund taking a fraction of the large-cap flow despite matching its weekly move.
Single names worth noting:
- NVDA — $3.01B, avg print $216.76 against a $223.96 close, at just 0.10x ADV
- PLTR — $2.03B at 0.27x ADV, avg print $161.81 into a $172.01 close
- SPCX — $2.11B, avg print $112.72 versus $133.11 at the bell, an 18.09% gap
- INFY — $437.6M on 35.5M shares, the heaviest share count on our board, at 1.41x ADV
- CMCSA — $636.5M across 25.58M shares, flow every session
- PATH — $294.1M on 21.25M shares, avg print $13.84 against a $15.05 close
- VEEV — $262.7M, avg print $213.78 into $230.47
- XME — $137.6M and KGC — $71.0M, both with prints clustered midweek as the metals complex moved
Scorecard: 37 Targets Hit
Ten of thirteen tickers reached at least one profit target — 11 Above levels triggered, 1 Below, and only RIVN never activated. 37 total targets.
- NVDA — Above $205.00 triggered, high of $224.76, swept all 6 targets for +9.64%
- OWL — Above $10.50 triggered, ran to $12.04 for +14.62%, the largest move from trigger on the board
- QQQ — Above $696.00 triggered, 6 of 7 targets, +4.68%
- SPY — Above $755.00 triggered, all 5 targets, +2.89%
- IWM — Above $297.00 triggered, high of $303.06
Eleven Above triggers in a week where semis outran the index by more than four points. The two-sided book only needed one side.
*Data sourced from MobyTick.*
Last Week’s Callout Performance
| Ticker | Above | Below | High | Low | Close | Triggered | Targets Hit | Move From Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.00 | $735.00 | $776.85 | $748.80 | $773.26 | Above | 5 of 5 → T5 ($775.00) | +2.89% |
| QQQ | $696.00 | $680.00 | $728.54 | $685.82 | $723.03 | Above | 6 of 7 → T6 ($722.50) | +4.68% |
| IWM | $297.00 | $289.00 | $303.06 | $292.40 | $301.56 | Above | 2 of 6 → T2 ($302.50) | +2.04% |
| RIVN | $17.50 | $15.00 | $16.16 | $15.10 | $16.00 | Not triggered | — | — |
| MRNA | $60.00 | $54.00 | $59.42 | $52.66 | $59.17 | Below | 0 of 4 | −2.48% |
| LULU | $121.00 | $113.75 | $128.86 | $120.54 | $128.58 | Above | 3 of 6 → T3 ($127.50) | +6.50% |
| MT | $71.25 | $66.00 | $75.66 | $69.79 | $73.29 | Above | 2 of 4 → T2 ($75.00) | +6.19% |
| NVDA | $205.00 | $195.00 | $224.76 | $196.85 | $223.96 | Above | 6 of 6 → T6 ($220.00) | +9.64% |
| AAPL | $315.00 | $300.00 | $316.29 | $301.32 | $313.33 | Above | 0 of 6 | +0.41% |
| OWL | $10.50 | $9.25 | $12.04 | $10.36 | $11.87 | Above | 3 of 6 → T3 ($12.00) | +14.62% |
| GOOGL | $360.00 | $330.00 | $384.48 | $353.78 | $354.30 | Above | 4 of 5 → T4 ($380.00) | +6.80% |
| ITRI | $102.50 | $91.00 | $107.00 | $100.08 | $103.75 | Above | 2 of 5 → T2 ($107.00) | +4.39% |
| MSFT | $467.50 | $432.00 | $505.18 | $475.00 | $499.99 | Above | 4 of 6 → T4 ($500.00) | +8.06% |
Bullish Setups — Above Trigger
| Ticker | Above Trigger | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | $777.00 | $780.00 → $787.50 → $797.50 → $800.00 |
| QQQ | $728.50 | $731.25 → $735.00 → $750.00 → $762.50 → $770.00 |
| IWM | $303.25 | $305.00 → $307.50 → $310.00 → $312.50 → $315.00 |
| INFY | $12.75 | $13 → $13.5 → $14 → $14.5 → $15 |
| SPCX | $140 | $142.5 → $145 → $150 → $155 → $160 → $165 → $170 |
| CMCSA | $25.62 | $26 → $27 → $28 → $29 → $30 |
| PATH | $15.20 | $16 → $17.5 → $18.5 → $20 |
| NVDA | $225 | $227.5 → $230 → $235 → $240 |
| PLTR | $172.5 | $180 → $185 → $190 → $195 → $200 |
| KGC | $28 | $28.5 → $29 → $30 → $31 → $32 → $32.5 → $33 |
| XME | $116.25 | $117.5 → $120 → $122.5 → $125 → $127.5 → $130 |
| VEEV | $231.25 | $235 → $240 → $245 → $250 → $255 → $260 |
Bearish Setups — Below Trigger
| Ticker | Below Trigger | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | $768.00 | $765.00 → $760.00 → $757.50 → $755.00 → $750.00 → $745.25 |
| QQQ | $710.00 | $705.00 → $702.50 → $700.00 → $690.00 → $687.50 |
| IWM | $297.00 | $295.00 → $292.00 → $290.00 → $287.50 → $285.00 → $282.50 |
| INFY | $12 | $11.75 → $11.5 → $11 → $10.5 → $10 |
| SPCX | $107 | $100 → $95 → $92.5 → $90 → $85 → $80 |
| CMCSA | $24 | $23.75 → $23 → $22.5 → $22 → $21 → $20 |
| PATH | $13.5 | $12.5 → $12 → $11 → $10 → $9. |
| NVDA | $215 | $212.5 → $210 → $207.5 → $205 |
| PLTR | $157.5 | $155 → $150 → $145 → $140 → $135 |
| KGC | $26.5 | $26 → $25 → $24.5 → $24 → $23 → $22 → $20 |
| XME | $109.75 | $108 → $106.25 → $105 → $104 → $102.5 → $100 |
| VEEV | $208.25 | $205 → $200 → $195 → $192.50 |
This Week’s Setups — Ticker Detail
Each card below shows the dark pool flow data for the past week, along with the key trigger levels and profit targets for the upcoming week. Dark pool stats are sourced from MobyTick’s proprietary analytics.
SPY
Above $777.00 → $780.00 → $787.50 → $797.50 → $800.00
Below $768.00 → $765.00 → $760.00 → $757.50 → $755.00 → $750.00 → $745.25
QQQ
Above $728.50 → $731.25 → $735.00 → $750.00 → $762.50 → $770.00
Below $710.00 → $705.00 → $702.50 → $700.00 → $690.00 → $687.50
IWM
Above $303.25 → $305.00 → $307.50 → $310.00 → $312.50 → $315.00
Below $297.00 → $295.00 → $292.00 → $290.00 → $287.50 → $285.00 → $282.50
INFY
Above $12.75 → $13 → $13.5 → $14 → $14.5 → $15
Below $12 → $11.75 → $11.5 → $11 → $10.5 → $10
SPCX
Above $140 → $142.5 → $145 → $150 → $155 → $160 → $165 → $170
Below $107 → $100 → $95 → $92.5 → $90 → $85 → $80
CMCSA
Above $25.62 → $26 → $27 → $28 → $29 → $30
Below $24 → $23.75 → $23 → $22.5 → $22 → $21 → $20
PATH
Above $15.20 → $16 → $17.5 → $18.5 → $20
Below $13.5 → $12.5 → $12 → $11 → $10 → $9.
NVDA
Above $225 → $227.5 → $230 → $235 → $240
Below $215 → $212.5 → $210 → $207.5 → $205
PLTR
Above $172.5 → $180 → $185 → $190 → $195 → $200
Below $157.5 → $155 → $150 → $145 → $140 → $135
KGC
Above $28 → $28.5 → $29 → $30 → $31 → $32 → $32.5 → $33
Below $26.5 → $26 → $25 → $24.5 → $24 → $23 → $22 → $20
XME
Above $116.25 → $117.5 → $120 → $122.5 → $125 → $127.5 → $130
Below $109.75 → $108 → $106.25 → $105 → $104 → $102.5 → $100
VEEV
Above $231.25 → $235 → $240 → $245 → $250 → $255 → $260
Below $208.25 → $205 → $200 → $195 → $192.50
ETF Dark Pool Flow
Broad-market ETFs accounted for $19.6B in dark pool prints across the Aug 3–7 week — roughly 12x the $1.59B that moved through the eleven sector SPDRs combined. Put differently, sector funds captured just 7.5% of total ETF block flow, while index-level vehicles absorbed the rest.
Broad market breakdown (MobyTick):
| ETF | Dark Pool Value | Prints | Share of Broad Flow | Weekly Price Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $14,712.0M | 22 | 75.1% | +3.51% |
| QQQ | $2,898.8M | 5 | 14.8% | +5.09% |
| VOO | $1,128.8M | 3 | 5.8% | — |
| IWM | $531.2M | 4 | 2.7% | +3.56% |
| IVV | $324.1M | 1 | 1.7% | — |
SPY ran 5.1x QQQ and 27.7x IWM in notional terms. QQQ itself printed 5.5x IWM. The three S&P 500 trackers (SPY, VOO, IVV) combined for $16.16B, or 82.5% of broad flow — index beta, not size or style tilts, is where the block liquidity concentrated.
Print structure differed sharply across the three headline names. SPY’s $14.7B arrived in 22 separate prints (~$669M average). QQQ’s $2.9B came in only 5 prints (~$580M average), and IWM’s $531M in 4 (~$133M average). Comparable average clip sizes in SPY and QQQ against a 5x notional gap means Nasdaq exposure was being sourced in fewer, similarly-sized institutional blocks rather than distributed across the week.
Sector SPDR flow vs. price performance:
| Sector ETF | Dark Pool Value | Share of Sector Flow | Weekly Price Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF (Financials) | $665.0M | 41.8% | +1.16% |
| XLI (Industrials) | $200.5M | 12.6% | +2.97% |
| XLU (Utilities) | $131.9M | 8.3% | −1.67% |
| XLC (Comm. Svcs) | $120.3M | 7.6% | +2.78% |
| XLE (Energy) | $112.8M | 7.1% | −3.44% |
| XLY (Cons. Disc.) | $106.5M | 6.7% | +3.25% |
| XLP (Staples) | $78.4M | 4.9% | +0.08% |
| XLK (Technology) | $78.0M | 4.9% | +7.20% |
| XLRE (Real Estate) | $70.7M | 4.4% | −0.20% |
| XLB (Materials) | $26.2M | 1.6% | +4.82% |
| XLV (Health Care) | $0 | 0.0% | +1.93% |
The rotation signal here is a divergence, not a confirmation. XLF took 41.8% of all sector block flow across 10 prints while finishing up just 1.16% — the weakest advance among the eight sector SPDRs that gained ground. Meanwhile the week’s two performance leaders drew almost no sector-ETF flow: XLK printed $78.0M in a single block despite a +7.20% move, and XLB took $26.2M on +4.82%. XLV recorded zero qualifying prints against a +1.93% gain.
Semiconductors led the tape at SMH +7.80%, ahead of XLK’s +7.20% and the S&P 500’s +3.58% — a stacked pattern with 11.24 points of dispersion between SMH and XLE (−3.44%). Yet that tech leadership showed up in single-name blocks, not sector wrappers: MSFT ($8.79B), AAPL ($5.92B), NVDA ($3.01B), MU ($1.96B), INTC ($1.83B) and AMD ($1.78B) all outprinted the entire sector SPDR complex individually except XLF. Combined tech and communications sector-ETF flow was $198.3M — 12.5% of sector totals.
Cyclical sector ETFs (XLF, XLI, XLE, XLB, XLY) drew $1.11B, or 69.9% of sector flow, against $281.0M (17.7%) for defensives (XLU, XLP, XLRE) — even as those same defensives posted the week’s three weakest sector prints.
*Data source: MobyTick.*
Educational Feature
The ADV ratio divides a ticker’s dark pool volume by its average daily volume. It’s a normalizer: it lets a $2B print in a mega cap and a $40M print in a small cap sit on the same scale, so size alone doesn’t decide what gets your attention.
This week it printed 8,121x on SPCX. That number isn’t real, and why it isn’t real is worth more than the number would have been.
The denominator was the problem. Our screen carried a 30-day ADV of 2,302 shares. Pull the actual tape and SPCX averaged roughly 93 million shares a day over its last 30 sessions. Its first daily bar in MobyTick data is June 12, 2026 — barely 39 sessions of history. A baseline built on a partial listing window produces an undersized ADV, and any ratio resting on it explodes. That’s the signature of an artifact: a ratio in the thousands next to a denominator that can’t be reconciled against the tape.
The numerator was real.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dark pool prints | 21 |
| Dark pool notional | $2.11B (9th of 834 tickers) |
| Dark pool shares | 18.70M |
| Average print | ~890,300 shares / $100.4M |
| Prints ≥ $50M / ≥ $100M | 19 / 8 |
| Print VWAP | $112.72 |
| Weekly OHLC | O $106.40 · H $133.48 · L $104.83 · C $133.11 |
| Cross vs. Friday close | +18.09% |
| DP share of week’s tape | 2.03% |
Twenty-one prints, eight above $100M, spread across three sessions — fourteen on Wednesday alone. That distribution doesn’t look like a mis-tagged block or one fat-fingered fill. Rebuilt against real volume, dark pool activity was about 0.2x ADV: unremarkable as a ratio, while the notional still ranked 9th of 834 tickers.
The test to carry forward: when a ratio looks impossible, check the denominator before you check your conviction. Verify ADV against the tape, confirm the listing has enough history to support a baseline, then ask whether the print count and size distribution look deliberate. Here the ratio failed and the flow passed. One print at 8,121x is a bug. Twenty-one prints averaging $100M is activity.
Levels for the week ahead: above $140, below $107. SPCX closed Friday at $133.11 after a $104.83–$133.48 weekly range, so both markers sit outside the range it just traded.
Key Takeaway
An extreme ADV ratio is a prompt to audit, not a conclusion. The ratio broke on SPCX because a 39-session listing history produced an unusable 2,302-share ADV baseline. What survived the audit was the flow itself: 21 prints, $2.11B, 9th-largest notional of 834 tickers. Screen with ratios; confirm with print count, print size, and the underlying tape.
*Data source: MobyTick*
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Trading stocks, ETFs, and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
