Market Overview
The major ETFs split on the week. QQQ led at plus 2.58%. IWM and DIA both fell.
| ETF | Open | High | Low | Close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 759.00 | 763.57 | 749.60 | 761.69 | +0.35% |
| QQQ | 703.33 | 721.73 | 700.00 | 721.45 | +2.58% |
| IWM | 287.49 | 289.84 | 281.03 | 284.10 | -1.18% |
| DIA | 524.54 | 526.78 | 512.29 | 515.88 | -1.65% |
The FOMC raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range on Wednesday September 16, voting 12-0. All four ETFs printed their weekly lows that session, then recovered Thursday and Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 5.0% after the decision.
Friday September 18 was the quarterly triple-witching expiration. Across a fixed basket of 22 broad-market and sector ETFs, Friday printed $50.85B in dark pool notional against a Monday-through-Thursday average of $26.16B, or 1.94 times.
| Session | ETF basket notional | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 14 | $15.72B | 36.50M |
| Tue Sep 15 | $29.07B | 64.91M |
| Wed Sep 16 | $29.64B | 65.65M |
| Thu Sep 17 | $30.22B | 53.57M |
| Fri Sep 18 | $50.85B | 94.03M |
| Mon-Thu average | $26.16B | 55.16M |
Last week’s levels
Of the 13 callouts in the prior issue, 3 tagged the Above level, 8 tagged the Below level, and 2 stayed inside the band. Five reached at least one target.
INTC ran 4.08% past its 107.00 Above trigger to a 111.37 high and reached its first target at 110.00. WMT extended 2.08% past 107.50 without reaching a target, and PLTR edged 0.21% past 177.50.
On the Below side, IWM crossed 287.50 and reached its second target at 282.50 with a 281.03 low. AMZN crossed 249.50 and reached its second target at 246.00. SPY crossed 757.00 and reached its second target at 750.00. QQQ crossed 707.50 and reached its first target at 700.00. AADX, UNH, NXPI and MRK each crossed their Below level without reaching a target. HPE and NVDA held inside their bands all week.
This week’s coverage
Thirteen tickers carry levels into September 21 to 25. Dark pool figures below cover aggregated levels at or above 50,000 shares for September 14 to 18.
| Ticker | DP notional | Shares | Levels | Avg print price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $70.31B | 92.49M | 68 | $760.16 |
| QQQ | $24.46B | 34.26M | 88 | $714.01 |
| IWM | $8.81B | 30.81M | 103 | $285.85 |
| MU | $6.55B | 6.81M | 18 | $961.54 |
| BE | $5.29B | 19.86M | 9 | $266.47 |
| INTC | $3.59B | 34.61M | 53 | $103.61 |
| PLTR | $2.80B | 15.98M | 22 | $174.96 |
| NKE | $949.5M | 26.05M | 53 | $36.45 |
| CMCSA | $789.9M | 32.62M | 36 | $24.22 |
| IREN | $467.3M | 10.66M | 50 | $43.83 |
| IBIT | $393.6M | 8.95M | 56 | $43.99 |
| HOOD | $198.4M | 1.79M | 10 | $110.73 |
| ICE | $132.1M | 0.85M | 5 | $154.74 |
Five names repeat from last week: SPY, QQQ, IWM, INTC and PLTR. Eight are new: IBIT, IREN, BE, MU, CMCSA, NKE, HOOD and ICE. Four of the additions sit in the tokenized-securities and crypto-infrastructure space, covered in this issue’s educational feature.
Data sourced from MobyTick.
Last Week’s Callout Performance
| Ticker | Above | Below | High | Low | Close | Triggered | Targets Hit | Move From Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 775 | 757 | 763.57 | 749.6 | 761.69 | Below | 2 of 6 → T2 ($750) | $757 → $749.6 (-0.98%) |
| QQQ | 722.5 | 707.5 | 721.73 | 700 | 721.45 | Below | 1 of 5 → T1 ($700) | $707.5 → $700 (-1.06%) |
| IWM | 291.5 | 287.5 | 289.84 | 281.03 | 284.1 | Below | 2 of 5 → T2 ($282.5) | $287.5 → $281.03 (-2.25%) |
| AADX | 15.5 | 11.75 | 13.37 | 11.552 | 12.76 | Below | 0 of 6 | $11.75 → $11.552 (-1.69%) |
| INTC | 107 | 87.5 | 111.37 | 94.523 | 108.6 | Above | 1 of 5 → T1 ($110) | $107 → $111.37 (+4.08%) |
| HPE | 63.5 | 50 | 62.14 | 55.02 | 60.76 | None | — | — |
| NVDA | 226 | 208.5 | 222.73 | 208.93 | 222.27 | None | — | — |
| PLTR | 177.5 | 164.5 | 177.88 | 166.42 | 177.64 | Above | 0 of 6 | $177.5 → $177.88 (+0.21%) |
| UNH | 406.25 | 375 | 386.46 | 372.42 | 376.9 | Below | 0 of 5 | $375 → $372.42 (-0.69%) |
| AMZN | 265.5 | 249.5 | 255.95 | 244.3 | 253.71 | Below | 2 of 6 → T2 ($246) | $249.5 → $244.3 (-2.08%) |
| WMT | 107.5 | 102.5 | 109.735 | 106.15 | 106.73 | Above | 0 of 4 | $107.5 → $109.735 (+2.08%) |
| NXPI | 239 | 218 | 231.36 | 216.66 | 227.99 | Below | 0 of 5 | $218 → $216.66 (-0.61%) |
| MRK | 154 | 143.5 | 147.84 | 142.32 | 146.87 | Below | 0 of 5 | $143.5 → $142.32 (-0.82%) |
Above triggered: 3 · Below triggered: 8 · Not triggered: 2
Tickers reaching ≥1 target: 5
Bullish Setups — Above Trigger
| Ticker | Above Trigger | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | $766.00 | $770.00 → $775.00 → $780.00 → $785.00 → $790.00 |
| QQQ | $722.50 | $725.00 → $729.78 → $735.00 → $740.00 → $745.00 → $750.00 |
| IWM | $291.00 | $294.00 → $297.50 → $300.00 → $302.50 → $305.00 |
| IBIT | $46.50 | $48.25 → $50.00 → $52.50 → $55.00 → $57.50 → $60.00 |
| IREN | $47.50 | $49.25 → $50.00 → $52.50 → $55.00 → $57.50 → $60.00 |
| INTC | $111.50 | $115.00 → $117.50 → $120.00 → $122.50 → $125.00 |
| BE | $280.00 | $300.00 → $312.50 → $325.00 → $340.00 → $350.00 |
| MU | $1042.50 | $1100.00 → $1150.00 → $1200.00 → $1250.00 |
| CMCSA | $23.5 | $24 → $25 → $25.50 → $26.25 → $27 |
| NKE | $37 | $38.5 → $39 → $40 → $40.70 |
| HOOD | $122.5 | $125 → $130 → $132.5 → $135 → $140 |
| PLTR | $178.25 | $182.5 → $185 → $186.5 → $190 → $195 → $200 |
| ICE | $158 | $160 → $161.25 → $162.5 → $165 → $167.5 → $170 |
Bearish Setups — Below Trigger
| Ticker | Below Trigger | Targets |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.00 | $750.00 → $745.00 → $742.50 → $740.00 |
| QQQ | $710.00 | $705.00 → $700.00 → $692.50 → $688.00 → $685.00 → $682.50 |
| IWM | $282.50 | $280.00 → $278.50 → $275.00 |
| IBIT | $42.00 | $41.00 → $40.00 → $39.50 → $38.00 → $37.00 → $36.50 |
| IREN | $40.00 | $37.50 → $36.25 → $35.00 → $32.50 → $31.25 → $30.00 |
| INTC | $100.00 | $97.50 → $95.00 → $92.50 → $90.00 |
| BE | $260.00 | $250.00 → $237.00 → $225.00 → $218.00 |
| MU | $900.00 | $875.00 → $850.00 → $820.00 → $800.00 → $775.00 |
| CMCSA | $22 | $21.25 → $21 → $20 → $19 |
| NKE | $35.50 | $35 → $34 → $32.5 → $30 |
| HOOD | $100 | $97.5 → $96.25 → $95 → $92.5 → $90 |
| PLTR | $169 | $165 → $160 → $158 → $155 → $152.50 → $150 |
| ICE | $152 | $150 → $147.5 → $145 → $142.5 → $140 |
This Week’s Setups — Ticker Detail
Each card below shows the dark pool flow data for the past week, along with the key trigger levels and profit targets for the upcoming week. Dark pool stats are sourced from MobyTick’s proprietary analytics.
SPY
Above $766.00 → $770.00 → $775.00 → $780.00 → $785.00 → $790.00
Below $754.00 → $750.00 → $745.00 → $742.50 → $740.00
QQQ
Above $722.50 → $725.00 → $729.78 → $735.00 → $740.00 → $745.00 → $750.00
Below $710.00 → $705.00 → $700.00 → $692.50 → $688.00 → $685.00 → $682.50
IWM
Above $291.00 → $294.00 → $297.50 → $300.00 → $302.50 → $305.00
Below $282.50 → $280.00 → $278.50 → $275.00
IBIT
Above $46.50 → $48.25 → $50.00 → $52.50 → $55.00 → $57.50 → $60.00
Below $42.00 → $41.00 → $40.00 → $39.50 → $38.00 → $37.00 → $36.50
IREN
Above $47.50 → $49.25 → $50.00 → $52.50 → $55.00 → $57.50 → $60.00
Below $40.00 → $37.50 → $36.25 → $35.00 → $32.50 → $31.25 → $30.00
INTC
Above $111.50 → $115.00 → $117.50 → $120.00 → $122.50 → $125.00
Below $100.00 → $97.50 → $95.00 → $92.50 → $90.00
BE
Above $280.00 → $300.00 → $312.50 → $325.00 → $340.00 → $350.00
Below $260.00 → $250.00 → $237.00 → $225.00 → $218.00
MU
Above $1042.50 → $1100.00 → $1150.00 → $1200.00 → $1250.00
Below $900.00 → $875.00 → $850.00 → $820.00 → $800.00 → $775.00
CMCSA
Above $23.5 → $24 → $25 → $25.50 → $26.25 → $27
Below $22 → $21.25 → $21 → $20 → $19
NKE
Above $37 → $38.5 → $39 → $40 → $40.70
Below $35.50 → $35 → $34 → $32.5 → $30
HOOD
Above $122.5 → $125 → $130 → $132.5 → $135 → $140
Below $100 → $97.5 → $96.25 → $95 → $92.5 → $90
PLTR
Above $178.25 → $182.5 → $185 → $186.5 → $190 → $195 → $200
Below $169 → $165 → $160 → $158 → $155 → $152.50 → $150
ICE
Above $158 → $160 → $161.25 → $162.5 → $165 → $167.5 → $170
Below $152 → $150 → $147.5 → $145 → $142.5 → $140
ETF Dark Pool Flow
Broad market ETFs printed $146.73B in dark pool notional from September 14 to September 18. The fourteen sector funds printed $8.78B. Broad vehicles ran 16.7 times sector notional, and sector products were 5.6% of the $155.51B combined ETF tape. Every one of the fourteen sector funds printed this week.
SPY carried $70.31B, or 47.9% of broad notional, on 92.49M shares. It ran 3.03 times IVV, 2.87 times QQQ, 7.98 times IWM, and 8.01 times the entire fourteen-fund sector complex. The three S&P 500 trackers together held $111.52B, 76.0% of broad notional. Friday alone accounted for $28.96B of SPY’s week, 41.2% of its five-day total.
Broad market ETFs
| ETF | Notional | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | $70.31B | 92.49M |
| QQQ | $24.46B | 34.26M |
| IVV | $23.20B | 30.54M |
| VOO | $18.01B | 25.80M |
| IWM | $8.81B | 30.81M |
| DIA | $756.6M | 1.46M |
| IJR | $712.4M | 5.11M |
| MDY | $475.0M | 0.71M |
| Total | $146.73B | 221.18M |
Sector ETFs
| ETF | Sector | Notional | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | Financials | $1,474.2M | 26.21M |
| SMH | Semiconductors | $1,439.9M | 2.62M |
| XLE | Energy | $981.0M | 15.19M |
| XLV | Health care | $906.1M | 5.39M |
| XLY | Consumer discretionary | $894.7M | 8.07M |
| XLI | Industrials | $688.3M | 4.07M |
| XLU | Utilities | $596.0M | 14.39M |
| XLK | Technology | $542.1M | 2.91M |
| XBI | Biotech | $394.8M | 2.53M |
| XLP | Consumer staples | $350.2M | 4.18M |
| XLB | Materials | $196.6M | 3.91M |
| XLC | Communications | $183.3M | 1.62M |
| XLRE | Real estate | $70.1M | 1.63M |
| XRT | Retail | $63.7M | 0.76M |
| Total | $8.78B | 93.48M |
XLF and SMH together held $2.91B, 33.2% of sector notional. SMH reached $1.44B on 2.62M shares, the highest notional-per-share ratio in the table. XLK printed $542.1M across the week, including a 415,854-share level at $185.52 on September 16. The four smallest funds, XLC, XLB, XLRE and XRT, combined for $513.7M, 5.9% of the sector total.
Daily flow, 22-ETF basket
| Session | Notional | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 14 | $15.72B | 36.50M |
| Tue Sep 15 | $29.07B | 64.91M |
| Wed Sep 16 | $29.64B | 65.65M |
| Thu Sep 17 | $30.22B | 53.57M |
| Fri Sep 18 | $50.85B | 94.03M |
| Mon–Thu average | $26.16B | 55.16M |
September 18 was the quarterly triple-witching expiration. Friday ran 1.94 times the Monday-through-Thursday average notional and 1.70 times the average share count across this basket.
Callout overlap
| Callout | Sector ETF | Sector notional |
|---|---|---|
| SPY, QQQ, IWM | Broad index | $103.58B |
| INTC, MU | SMH | $1,439.9M |
| ICE | XLF | $1,474.2M |
| NKE | XLY | $894.7M |
| PLTR, BE, HOOD | XLK | $542.1M |
| CMCSA | XLC | $183.3M |
SPY, QQQ and IWM account for 70.6% of broad ETF notional on their own.
Figures cover aggregated dark pool levels at or above 50,000 shares. Data sourced from MobyTick.
Educational Feature
On September 17, 2026 the SEC issued Exchange Act Release 34-106402. It grants conditional five-year relief letting qualifying venues trade tokenized US equities without registering as an exchange, and lets firms supply liquidity to those venues without registering as dealers. Chair Paul Atkins described it as an interim step pending durable rulemaking. The order arrived two days after the CLARITY Act failed a Senate procedural vote, 49 to 50.
A tokenized share represents ownership of a real company on a blockchain ledger instead of through the DTCC book-entry chain, where a depository subsidiary is the registered owner and your broker holds a claim on its behalf. Two products carry the “tokenized stock” label, and the order treats them differently.
| Attribute | Synthetic wrapper token | Registered onchain share |
|---|---|---|
| Instrument | Token tracking a stock’s price | SEC-registered share recorded on chain |
| Legal owner of the share | Broker or special-purpose vehicle | Token holder, named on the register |
| Voting rights | No | Yes |
| Dividends | Passed through, not a legal right | Legal right |
| Offered by | Robinhood, Kraken xStocks, Ondo | Securitize, Superstate, Figure, Dinari |
| Qualifies under the order | No | Yes |
The conditions are restrictive by design.
| Condition | Effect |
|---|---|
| Caps on symbol count and trading volume | Limits near-term volume and revenue |
| Tokens must carry rights identical to ordinary shares | Excludes price-tracking substitutes |
| No tokenized linked securities or security-based swaps | Most offshore products do not qualify as built |
| Issuer gets written notice and may object | Issuers hold a veto over third-party tokenization |
| Smart contracts auditable, public, permissionless chain | Code runs openly on chains such as Ethereum or Solana |
| Venue must be a US person and follow OFAC rules | Offshore operators cannot convert directly |
| Only identified, KYC-verified participants may trade | Not anonymous access |
| 30 days advance public notice before operating | Launch dates are observable ahead of time |
| Trading halts mirror the primary exchange | Halt parity with the listing venue |
| Expires five years after Federal Register publication | Time-limited, open to public comment |
The approvals arrived in sequence, not all at once.
| Date | Milestone |
|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | DTCC receives SEC no-action relief for a tokenization pilot |
| Mar 18, 2026 | SEC approves Nasdaq’s tokenized securities rule |
| Apr 17, 2026 | SEC approves NYSE’s equivalent rule change |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Securitize lists on NYSE and tokenizes its own stock |
| Sep 15, 2026 | CLARITY Act fails Senate procedural vote, 49 to 50 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | SEC issues Release 34-106402 |
Settlement is where the mechanics bite. Registered onchain shares can settle in seconds against stablecoins or tokenized money market funds, which the order permits as the cash leg. US equities currently settle the next business day. Instant settlement reduces the float, collateral and counterparty-risk services that clearing intermediaries are paid to provide.
Tokenization names on our tape
Aggregated dark pool levels at or above 50,000 shares, September 14 to 18.
| Ticker | Company | DP notional | Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | Strategy | $534.0M | 10 |
| BMNR | BitMine Immersion | $469.3M | 46 |
| CRCL | Circle Internet Group | $397.1M | 9 |
| HOOD | Robinhood | $198.4M | 10 |
| PURR | Hyperliquid Strategies | $181.8M | 24 |
| COIN | Coinbase | $180.7M | 3 |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | $132.1M | 5 |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq | $119.4M | 6 |
| BULL | Webull | $69.6M | 39 |
| FIGR | Figure Technology | $66.7M | 5 |
| SECZ | Securitize | $34.3M | 4 |
| GEMI | Gemini Space Station | $12.4M | 1 |
| USDE | StablecoinX | $5.5M | 5 |
| Total | $2.40B | 167 |
The two exchange operators that already hold tokenization rule approvals, ICE and NDAQ, printed $251.5M combined. The two venues whose current retail products do not qualify under the order, HOOD and COIN, printed $379.1M. Securitize, whose registered onchain share model the order accommodates, printed $34.3M across 4 levels, all of them on September 18. Its heaviest level that session aggregated 2,713,392 shares at $10.86, worth $29.5M, with further levels at $10.05 (260,495 shares), $10.20 (68,705) and $9.40 (160,000).
ICE carried heavier flow before this window. It printed 1,732,504 shares at $157.76 on September 8, worth $273.3M, and 1,512,528 shares at $149.75 on August 6, worth $226.5M. Inside the September 14 to 18 week its dark pool flow fell to $132.1M across 5 levels, while Friday’s consolidated volume reached 4.30M shares, the highest of its trailing eight sessions, closing at 155.47 against a 50-day moving average of 152.58.
Key takeaway
Format does not change the law. A tokenized equity remains an equity, gated by registration or an exemption, and the relief that makes onchain trading possible is capped, conditional and expires in five years. Our tape puts $2.40B of dark pool flow across 13 tokenization-linked names for the week, against $146.73B in broad-market ETFs alone. The infrastructure approvals are further along than the off-exchange flow behind them.
Print figures sourced from MobyTick. SECZ and USDE figures are drawn from the MobyTickTickers trade archive, which covers both listings; the aggregated prints endpoint returns no history for either. Regulatory details from SEC Exchange Act Release 34-106402 and the accompanying Commission fact sheet.
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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Trading stocks, ETFs, and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
